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WGR550>Topics>>Aaron Schatz says Bills have better odds to make playoffs than Miami

Aaron Schatz says Bills have better odds to make playoffs than Miami

Nov 13, 2012|

w/ Schopp + Bulldog

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

-- reads. That's what I say let every. Hears it and drink it and San Diego all of this for us. What's the line. Goes zones booed every time with the line anchor man isn't there trinket in an anchorman -- is there a drink it and an anchor man. Sorry what. People. From. We're having a tough -- on second currency weakened the better you can actually -- -- just watch that there in the car people with Nightline drink it is it is. Many makes of what stuff and that means. And by the German ice right I want what the first half an hour banker and last night on the -- movie channels. The best part out the beginning at best -- and different the party all the stuff them in the rules showdown Witten beaten Eyewitness News team. -- I am here good let's try this again are you today. Good good -- anchor -- I've personally used that Columbus felt like -- -- The purpose guests expect that there. Well -- you're at you're at the game Sunday and I daresay it would be memorable Rio. Out it was certainly not what played better than expected. At this point it's become pretty much do your -- for the patriots can take a lead and had nearly or completely blow it here in the fourth quarter. So in that way we probably need each other in the press box and say oh golly this again we've seen this before. But this one ended up a little -- -- we went Fitzpatrick threw the interception and which was just a really perhaps where he must just -- -- -- until it -- -- without even didn't even really want to see that the fact that there. Well would you like to know we've been boy you noted that we've -- about seven hours -- radio and Colleen. Well let it play out. You're saying you're saying why do we draw dropping what -- -- That's the we we got Stevie Johnson today area and saying that Graham had never on the play for heat in practice when they do the two -- neutral it's either him Stevie himself Donald Jones Scott Chandler of the cement spot and at the rookie. Who. You know they don't throw to him anyway. I look in the champ -- were like oh okay. They can't say they have a real problem with go look at all that perhaps. They're terrible -- slot receivers their terror. And in particular -- first and had this game is just. Did they cannot cover and now I don't know indicate -- corner the end zone there. But certainly on the plate in the middle of the field because October structure located. About Spiller parent I'm thinking that he was the guy doing would have been. Really afraid of late. Yeah I mean you look at. The bit about -- -- -- -- hit the chance that you're not get much regain and on the other side he could be super loose as a man and scored a touchdown and plot. I mean he looked very good. You look very good in this game. But certainly the patriots -- batter gets you know covered those short little passes. After catch -- they are covering stuck in the middle of the field. You know ten or fifteen don't -- don't -- Is he still. By the way your top performing running back in the league this year. You know he's not. Certainly not a total value because. In other carriers have been cut back its projection came back. So yes Adrian Peterson now number one in total value still -- Stewart number one is value per play. We're running back with at least eighty carries out. Yet and -- so he had a lot you -- Ares. We got like marks on prevention Adrian Peterson in the top quarterbacks the year general. You know what what people say when a guy is as productive as this but doesn't get a lot of touches. They say simply give him more touches how much truth is there in. That's sort of logic that if you were to give CJ Spiller ten more touches a game -- even more. That and you'd expect close to that or the same level of production. Sometimes it's true sometimes it's not it depends a lot on whether that player. First of all the players -- very hard numbers because that use specific play you know so it's really a small sample size. Also depend on is a player how specific strike. We're there that's when used in a specific way you know like churches Rodgers in Atlanta just -- better use -- third down situations. I don't think either of those are troopers bella I doubt he's still going to be far ahead of every running back for the rest of the year. Via you know the cut fast you know he's -- I don't see any reason why educated more carries. He's not gonna be one of you know top are -- back to -- for the rest. For the rest of the season. And we get a look at that starting on Thursday -- -- how long -- a goal of Fred Jackson is out for this game with a concussion. And not my sense. Certainly the fans feel this way I don't know how the bills while there and body if if Spiller is up to that workload again like he demonstrated. Well let's say he demonstrated he was then he got hurt in just the second team. That he was playing as the number one guy. So maybe there's a little cautionary tale there but. That maybe the thing will shift in Spiller will be the guy that gets more and Jackson will be the guy that sort of is is the compliment report. You look at it got too good thought a candy Jack numbers this year are not as good as they were a lot cuter by. Are you did a good running back. -- is excited any he would be happy to have mr. starting running back. Still are still. Here now I will that play between Miami next right. But in Miami is third in run defense and our steps. So there will be an interstate. This will be an interest -- -- out here because this is Opteron. Okay that's the one thing that thing Miami but it and it. Errant shots with -- us from football outsiders are working through kind of a sketchy connection here that of course bills dolphins team is. Is Thursday night Erin -- some would use your expertise here on the on the AFC. And and has -- -- -- size it up here with. Of the bills being some small part in the in the overall picture in the dolphins a little bit of a bigger one Pittsburgh with its injury to Roethlisberger. Indianapolis. Obviously it. Are you know despite the injury of Bob whisper I think that its burgers production there. You know they've always got reasonable step out of their -- that had their backups. And while they you have to put Baltimore twice. In the next three weeks. And that it could make it -- for them to win their division I doubt to pollute enough gains but slide back in the -- While art. The other what you're saying Indianapolis. As just not very good despite the fact that there -- six entry. What they have a lot of close wins against -- competition. And then this week I'm not so closely and also -- -- that competition. This schedule does get harder the rest of the way. So because they're six and three we have that would about a 50% chance to the playoff at the -- But they're certainly not. I guarantee. San Diego got a little better shot since then go to that shot even buffalo and Miami have a little bit of shock not well thoughts. That's second into Indianapolis does start losing that second -- -- but it's really wide open. He couldn't have -- 2818. Kind of odds would you give me on Miami winning the division at this point. Two games left with new England and New England what is 1% you give me a 101. I would YouTube Google want someone new willing to. Name your company Paramount -- I mean all all all they mind too but. Given how good the patriots aren't. So. Seriously all -- would have to seriously people. I'll lose out on the division to Miami even if they were to lose both games to Miami. That they have to play against each other. Miami has to -- our restaurant on the patriots -- the third part mr. meaning it. But part of that is the two games of the each other out of seven left me in Miami as the bills twice and New England doesn't. But it's. I don't know I just I think. Miami is that they had a terrible game Sunday again cactus. -- score. But I don't know what New England the same thing was -- last year though right their defense was like this and they went 80 in the second or. Here -- That got this new corner that should help. Should help. -- honored on the Gaza babble blog if I would wonder what else out at these. I think really interesting to think about -- a team that can be not just. You know mediocre. On one side of the ball. But it is doing what was last year and like a minute away from -- -- and like to have the bill shred them like that on defense. But -- -- all our fans there this really what you do -- but but it means if you look at the patriots are still like the kings of the conference. Know everybody's well I mean everybody is worried about the defense. But the Packers beat the number of people on Sports Radio here who are worried about. The idea that they can't punch in the final. At the OK. Okay. There and -- we apologize for the greatest -- -- -- him. I think he disappeared for a moment. Here's here's my dilemma though. I I love betting. But I'd rather better -- -- I'd rather like a Merrill Hodgson and there shots FF if I'm I'm I'm sorry about not very good so here. -- -- Thoughts on the I don't wanna bet with you -- pretend -- with you and then each week -- visit the resides in -- if they go up or down. -- at all I'll tell you something interesting about our play up our report. After this week which he is not on the site yet unfortunately but we have brought along with better ought to meet in the playoffs in Miami at this point. Because of schedule. Because get to a Miami has been -- lot of winning the division. I'm up all odds of winning the greater basically nil because Miami does have that you can get picker. By. Upload schedule is these year Russell -- so we have the bill baker played up to something like 10% who are. Simulations in Miami only makes it like 8% approximately. It I I'm I'm tempted to lie I don't -- -- I doubt you would have run the numbers but. If the bills win that game and our foreign five in New England is five and four point it's just it feels like it it would be on. Over here. Yeah people would be worried around here Cuba this in the -- is. Even more wins and losses when you're thinking about the quality of achievement and look at equality of how to play the fact is that the patriots have lost three games by combined. And it can't losses this game would have been fourteen was my -- five point. Better than their record. It's a hard thing to sell there was -- -- it ignore wins and losses when you're thinking about how good your team is. It's a hard but -- Don't you obviously don't ignore them when you're looking backwards and we consider -- opposition. By the when you're trying to figure out going forward. Losing the game by 25 it just means something different than losing it and I want. Erin I noticed last night you're not a big fan of celebration penalties. I hate celebration penalties. -- I was in. You know I did a -- Appearance a couple of years ago we -- -- Ray Didinger. Who's. Politician. Writer from Philadelphia. Someone in the audience asked about what we would change about the NFL what's the first thing we would change. And and he hit it says something about not liking you know go on with -- whenever. And I got to be exact opposite the first thing I would it was Gilbert all celebration penalties and let these guys just be themselves. Well how you like being Kansas City very relatable for us. They score a touchdown the guys on the field probably knew with a time did not have a great chance of holding up. Yet -- -- brings up if it's just an incomplete pass it brings up upon. Yet the -- they run the ball back which you know of course it they showed that the celebration penalty and it counts anyway. I know I know that's one of the most ridiculous thing about the rule. Is that a celebration penalty can count a player that ever happened. This right yeah I thought I honestly I'm in the wrong. I'm guilty of not reading page for page out of the NFL rule book I wondered. If a more just result there isn't a punt and then a fifteen yard penalty at the end of that. Like generally do that I can't really do that you know. There's. I mean you can't put the penalty on the play that haven't happened yet. You can only put the penalty on the play that haven't happened yet. He accused gore because of the team's scorers. Vendors no next play to. Put it ought to let me except I didn't care. What I I think that the I don't like soccer and penalties at all like certainly would believe and he ruled. Play is cancel eight celebration penalty based on that play is also can't. Feel free to use this let's say you have a graduation party. And then you and it just Bulldog you know you can relate to this it just gets crazy. And and the cops com and bad things have worked on a kindergarten graduation. Whatever whatever you but what however this works in your mind yes they're like waste my Thomas. You have a graduation party gets crazy the cops come there -- trouble that you find out later actually there's this other thing your you didn't graduate the cops were still there. You still had the arrest all that that does like go away. Even leading graduate you still have to deal with the other consequences of your actions that's how it should be maybe it's just. That's an IQ school that he cannot help may that we. If you're kidding plate dances and -- pat. On that note we all. We'll let you go for this week thanks Erin. All right -- and check out -- website the fabulous football outsiders dot com we didn't talk about it with him but he. Analyzed every penalties. From this what -- does the analyzed every penalty from the bills' game there were 21 penalties. Fourteen on the bills seven New England he ended up calling two of them. Very bad calls a couple more questionable. And he's got more broken down there each one football outsiders dot com has that kind of analysis for every team in the NFL.

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