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WGR550>Topics>>Aaron Schatz Describes Analytics in the NFL

Aaron Schatz Describes Analytics in the NFL

Jan 2, 2013|

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Agree Greg you've got to get to the punch line here just to let them. Get start the joke the song's going to and aaron's going to hang up. I guess we're going to have to -- -- tell us all later about how old physically demanding sledding is -- from that hotel lodgings and flooding. Will we have to be true to ourselves will fit in time to discuss letting. -- shots is with us now football outsiders dot com happy new year -- -- new unity. Thank you with thanks for being on today. Analytics -- and actual bills employee. Not even just an employee with a new president of the team. Mentioned this word yesterday. Should dumb fans the best thing isn't it I almost drove my truck off the -- -- hurt the -- with the lead with -- yeah it was 23 minutes into the thing maybe five whatever it was it was out front. Yeah pride and so -- -- What do you think it means when he or any other case around the league -- happened like this weren't -- president of the team is talking like this what what do you think it. Means. I don't know yet I think it's going to be hard to figure out I mean listen I'll tell you that there are a number of teams that have analyst guy. There effective seeing a lot more in signings that they are in on field decisions. It's interesting that -- team to be so public about it. And it's interesting frankly that seemed to build a team which you know we've been talking about this for a couple years now. These very old school and went out you know that and general manager you would not think of as being very analytically friendly since he's. You know kind of an old scout. So you know we'll have to see what this means by what happens you know who they hire and what happens over the next couple years if. Whoever gets hired to coach the bill is going forward on fourth and one all the time next year you'll know that he analytics department has had fact. As much as much as Brandon did elaborate about the analytic point it was really about what you just said which signings. Fill out your roster of managing the cap like not overpaying for players. You know being more you know while analytical about the -- if you. You -- if not that's not a new thing in the NFL in the Philippines and had -- managed to cut cap economically for a long time I mean there's three different. Things analytic is really you know can be three different things I think. It is main main categories. First is. In game decision making the second is figuring out which players are likely to be better than other players protecting them into the future. And the third is figuring out economically what's the right way to shape your roster under the cap in order to get the most value. Once you've decided how good players are which player you want. So -- teams have done a lot of third one. Without calling it equipment and analytic department to question this Howell. How how forward are we gonna get on the first two. Which is where really people like myself a man who started doing this on the outside. That's a lot of the stuff we've been thinking about those first two questions. This this is a critical distinction. I think were still myself not real close to when there's going to be a department Ross described it as a robust department. However many people that is I don't think yet in the NFL there were about to have that group of guys collectively tell the coach whether upon. Mean this this this sport is famous for how hard headed. The coaches are and in its controversial way and anybody else decides anything that has and ended there with the program. So I think we're probably looking much more toward part three of your three part. Yeah I mean with that the thing is you know what I said is you don't have to you don't have to tell the coach to do it every -- the number city to. The trick is convinced the coach do that when the numbers say that it that it certainly good decision. Like you know I don't wanna have the small -- arguments where the numbers say that your 2% better off but. I mean I think he needs to be there need to be eighteen had an analytic department can convince the coach can do the right take when he's 30%. Better off. Yeah right okay if everybody made decisions based on the small distinctions every opponent of theirs would know exactly what's coming all the time. We we we don't end up there. And an -- and the other thing is that. You know I said this before. What we're going to need in the revolution is an owner who comes out and says I want my coach. To do it this way. I -- judging him based on the process. An outcome and urging him this process now branded is going to be sort of the city and for the owner from now on. That perhaps he's the guy to do that. But he hasn't done it yet all he said are the work analytics and the work department right. Yeah I mean I got a lot of people lot yesterday other twitters saying so you know are you going to put it around mayor's cup to buffalo. Okay first of all I don't know what that they -- interest it to somebody like me. OK in other words an outsider who has these newfangled hockey -- -- tried to. Model in game decision making to model player age curbs or whether they're rich city and guy that an economic degree here an MBA can help. Figure out how to get the best contract written. And the second thing is I don't really wanna work for people time anyway but it you know what -- -- -- -- yet to consult on here. You should know who you are I think the that's Italy's the first part as far as the income on their radio. Right right right and that's what -- -- we care of their games so mean I'm sure there were view. Nine and the site -- would opens march but don't want or even irrespective Voss we wondered that. Wonder is the point is sound so old you know that you know it's not Ross were talking about. It's the other people the coach included and just like. -- -- tell you I don't know what this is he said that yesterday's have a guy I still do it by feel whenever I think the date coming where he's. He's writing into the sunset -- upstairs somewhere and Doug Whaley. Who's you know -- much younger forty years old I don't know what he thinks of -- he really wasn't asked to speak yesterday. But right and we don't I would like -- right. Right but I think the third the first part of the in game stuff. Didn't get a -- yesterday but evaluating players managing the cap like I feel like that's what what their focus is for now and I don't know I just hope we don't value. Leading players there are plenty of steps to be made because the fact is that. And I thought he was do you still tend to over value older players could not understand just how quickly most NFL players lose their abilities. And and so we'll you know we'll see we'll see what happens. We're talking about team that brought in Shawn Merriman and Nick Barnett for that matter. Why -- he did it's it it's all about what you think your caddie. I mean if Barnett -- what you thought you were getting -- part that was like the league average -- you could stick in the middle of our defense they had big stars like Mario Williams and Kyle Williams. And you got what you want it. He's not about -- he's not terrible player the other linebackers -- -- -- at bat but Barnett not terrible but he's not good like. -- if you can't. Give us an example or two of -- Your analysis. Using statistics. Exposes. Or. The other hand -- on or it's a talent like how how how does that ever contrasts. With the guy who has been you know beating the bushes for twenty or thirty years and won't see something you'll see. Well well when it comes to. This stacked up as much or plain straight out there when it comes to things like projecting player performance forward we will players if they're equal they start to caught. As far as finding unknown players in the bushes and beating the bushes there's lots and lots and lots of work to begun on trying to project college players. The tough part is that most of that would require doing college chart again. The other thing -- -- charting is basically scouting where you turn your scouting report in the numbers the trick is to then take those numbers and. Doing more with from the way that we do things like yards and carries and passes. The other thing is what I can do is what you know will be can do is we can find small sample -- all star. We can find guys were fairly unknown do very well and small amounts -- performance. You don't sign them to do is that you watched them on film. And then you sign them if you think that you're skiing. So the -- to tell you decide they tell you who would check out they tell you who huge beating your homework on. Then the coaches decide who gets the scheme and we saw. The stats tell you for -- -- Bulldog may be once not to -- Jeff Posey at 1201 in the morning. Because he had a big set here for Houston made birdie and got build around him to some extent. It maybe that's a good example maybe. Well sometimes they will tell you -- players who are overrated. I mean just just you know just doing charting in discovery hurries and hit. You can find players to have many more sacked and they have hurried and hit that the player. Who's probably gonna see their sack numbers come back hurt the following year -- a player has a lot of hurried and hit that very few sacks. We'll get more sacked the following year like when Freeney like free elect -- tax couple years ago based on what hurries and hit some. He was fine you know I think got better. The you know it's it's it's not -- be it's not strict. It's not baseball you can't put a number on every player has -- players value. K there's too much crossover between a player his teammates -- you have to look at context. And there's too many action on the field that we don't have steps four. And there's too much different from team to team in the scheme. In baseball. You can take a hit her and drop another line up and basically the same guy -- you take Josh Hamilton out of taxes. If you put him in Anaheim and except for the park. Park. You know park effects he's going to be the same guy next. Yes fifty Euro yes. Okay in football it doesn't work that way you can't take. You can't take up -- annual out of the falcons lineup and put a lot of teams that played many mainly man defense like Seattle. And expect him to be able to do anything he's gonna be terrible for the -- team at all. So these things all have to be considered and that's why analytic for the department and not everything yeah. And I'll show yeah that's right I wondered if I don't like we were talking to Mike and I before -- is it it obviously -- mean we've been having you on for a few years and it was Mike's idea initially. So hearing Ross Ramsey analytics I started thinking about like how all. But how do you really do it and get familiar with your website of course but I am thinking. But the bills need linebackers how can they use analytics to decide which is the best linebacker they can sign when whoever that linebacker is playing with two other guys and how can you figure out how they're impacting not the -- -- the four guys and probable I think what it took him do it. Can suggest to you who are guys should go watch -- now. And then it can suggest you to make sure that you don't get a guy who's gonna who's who's. Who's gonna decline because damage. But the coach is still need to decide who could just -- the. Errant shots -- -- football outsiders dot com Aaron do you happen to have an opinion. Umps analytics based or not on Ken Whisenhunt. You know. He's certainly. You know he did good things for a couple years there. You know I mean I reelected -- a problem the last couple years in the offense has been terrible and that the weird thing volleys in the way that he. He's kind of screwed around with the quarterback seems like he can never quite decide on one until -- finally decided on the water in the Kurt Warner had two really good years and then when that was over he went back not being -- -- -- -- -- So I don't know we'll be right back to buffalo where that's exactly what the problem is right now he's probably a much better higher per team we actually -- quarterback is there to question. Like Chicago. Well we don't care about them though so that's out. We've got to tell us -- Chicago -- but I mean. Whisenhunt is not a guy who he got another job I'd be like oh my god are we just recycling the same guys over and over again. And as I want bigger. Audience he's new he's new new and often. If it is still wouldn't be wouldn't be that whole thing that's already coming across that point that you just made -- is made just. That's -- say it's 3 o'clock he does not sound like one of these guys. That you just want a roll your eyes let's. It's not Norv Turner. The interest -- at one of trust in that shot he went to the Super Bowl and they struggled the last couple years. It's not a bad -- to get a second job to. Okay. All right -- again thank you for all your expertise -- your time. And you know opening thing if you do get a call from the bills let us know right. He outlined here if you got wanna talk playoffs in the run up to the -- -- me now. Distances. Happy to do so happy to do so today we get it just to keep this short the short -- on this weekend which is. Cincinnati has been much better over the second half the year in Houston -- And Seattle Washington the great game because they each have to basically -- the same offense that put this with the same offense. The difference is Seattle's defense is a lot better. So the Seattle win that game please don't listen anybody who talks about how Robert Griffin the third Russell I would Russell Wilson Chile's president Robert Griffin. Seattle would gain what we've learned is that Richard Sherman is better than the -- hall. Doctor Russell Wilson's under the -- Okay and we talked about Indianapolis real quick a lot this year -- really weren't that good you view on it you. Really hard you know the the fan in me and it really hard to discount the emotional power -- Got out saying and the fact is Baltimore is not the most dangerous team couldn't be played this week. Right okay Aaron thanks again and -- like idol topic -- -- shots -- yes Mike. Are you injured from -- And not just so.

If the Bills release Tyrod, would you be worried he'd be really good elsewhere?
  Yes. That's a big reason why I think they should keep him.
  No. I think we have seen his ceiling.
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