May 30, 2013|
5/30 Joe Buscaglia and Matthew Coller dive deep into how to evaluate goaltenders
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Like golf things in -- sports in the way we look at them do not fall into just black and white welcome everybody we are getting basic math. -- sometimes there's more to the story then the actual story people. Are overlooked for a variety of -- -- that would WGR Sports Radio 550 will attempt to one covered. Well commit to the analytic department podcast. We've joked with Kelly and that people out there. A WGR Sports Radio by different. Welcome -- he analytic department episode. Only Europe that you are but it dot com thank you for joining us for another week and it fits your first week with us and welcome and what we're trying to do provide a little bit of a different look at sports in western new York and and buffalo with. My down hockey and football specifically and if you're with us last episode we talk a little bit about. That the bills in in how he might. Apply scouting in it. In advanced stats and you potentially building a roster in this week we're gonna travel back to the land of hockey and with me like always is. Our own Matthew -- to reach your Sports Radio by the viewers who is our. Hockey. -- bad stats analytic guru I am delighted guru you get an enthusiast. For the draft I don't know fight. All buys -- who rule I think I might still be an enthusiast level. Yeah I'm always have always hesitant to call myself -- group but a -- calling someone else something Al -- it's flat out call Booker I don't care. I think it goes enthusiasts. Guru and then expert right experts the highest. Yeah I think I think that would that would be the way to go but yeah will go what analytics in the easiest and our president analytic enthusiasts are eight armed RT -- RT. So yeah today were more tactical bet on hockey and you know one of the ideas about this whole thing and it's come. -- with a lot of attention especially. Out in Colorado for for a few different reasons is you know a potential idea of okay is Ryan Miller going to move on from the Buffalo Sabres and what does that mean for the sabres goaltending unit. If he does in back on and -- you put up a piece about Jonas and -- recently on WGR by Padilla comment. And in how he might translate into the average NHL and that's what I -- -- was. Know how you maybe analyze. A guy like at Roth who hasn't really gotten too much time out there on the ice I mean he use even Pittston in pieces but. How do you go about looking at a guy like under all that and how he might translate into eight all on our starting caliber role. Yeah the thing is it's the the three best words and all of analytics -- small sample size. When it comes to got to send rob but I guess the could be somewhat of a -- there are double meaning it. And Roth you know short OK it yet this is the comedy podcast. So. And -- only has 53 games. And that's kind of problematic when you're trying to analyze it analytically using statistics especially because. With goaltenders. You can be fooled by a small sample size and 53 games even -- it seems like a lot and it seems like Enron it's been around for awhile. It still isn't anywhere near enough there was a study that determined that it means you need about 5000 shots to figure out. How good goalie really isn't projection going forward in the future well -- -- we've got about thirteen hundred shots to work -- it. And that's not close to enough so my approach was to try and dig. Deeper into those thirteen hundred shots by looking at the even strength save percentage taking now. The power play save percentage because that can fluctuate wildly with. Good luck in the small sample size might point out the article that. -- long quest had a really great power play save percentage one year and then the next year was garbage in the same thing goes for Ryan Miller. But even strength is much more across the border predictable. Even though there can be somewhat in small sample sizes with that too saw I've broken down by -- Even strengths a percentage and I compared it to how some other goalies in the league did. When they were 2324. Years old. And then still well it's hard to make conclusions and I had to go even deeper in this case Joseph I had to go. To the video and I broke down every goal. That Jonas and -- allowed this year and tried to figure out some of the strengths and weaknesses that he has in his game and still. It's hard to project but I think in Roth's case you have to put together all the pieces of the puzzle you can't like with Ryan Miller just look at the stats and say. Hey I mean he's a pretty darn good -- because over 101000 shots he's always been above league average. Yeah you know I think quick -- and -- -- then in all these Ollie these other cases are talking about. Even translating back but also but I -- last week to. The scouting. Can never be ignored no matter how much you look at stats and everything like that always has become positive -- And that's especially true when you talk about the small sample -- what -- interest and it is. It is you know with these small sample sizes. And in the guys that you look at it in order the other types of players. Who did you did you look at what they were younger goalies in May be how did how -- the numbers in the stats translates. To and a drop in in what he's he's brings the tape. Yet the thing was it's even hard to find goaltenders who played a lot in their 2324. -- season because. A lot of goaltenders matured later on the kind of like -- catcher in baseball where they're really. Not ready to become they're gonna be for the rest of their career until age 252627. And that's why you see a lot of guys like Victor fast or like in -- Yemeni. Tim Thomas is the best example and I think David -- -- by the way guys who are in their mid to late twenties and early thirties before they get a chance. And then they turn out to be really good because maturity is a big part of it so it's hard to find. Guys who played at their 2324 seasons but -- I looked at no Carey Price was a guy who was up really early in his career referral or long goal. Marc-Andre Fleury may be the most famous example of a really young goalie getting a chance outside of Tom -- so. So I compared to those guys who are some of the better goalies in the league and he compared very well in terms of even strength save percentage is was 926. The league average 919. And most of these guys were somewhere between 922. -- 930. Which would be if and Rolf could maintain that. It would be terrific but there's a lot of other facets that still going into it Joseph I mean he hasn't played back to back games. More than maybe once or twice in his career so far. Yeah so. If we are exit the gleaned anything from. From where do you mean you bring up great points about it but goalie position in just how long it takes to mature which is really. The antithesis of basically all the rest of professional sport yet on how hot outside a catcher. Much what they get to 25 or 26 you know with the guy it's all right that's -- -- it with goalies -- and catchers like you brought up. I mean it's kind of kind of interesting to hear that OK this might now be. This might not be a strong enough case just because. Just because he may not have gone through the overall maturity that a lot of these other guys student being able to beat depended -- bad apple because. With the -- position and while. I think we can -- argue that scoring is is pretty darn important to you but. You know having having the goaltender in and being able to that being able to have someone be at least be above average there. Is -- something that's critical to your success in the NHL. Yeah we can talk a lot about how important goaltending is but the best example that I can give you is. Four out of the top five puck possession teams were recording this by the way as the Blackhawks and Detroit get ready to place there's five teams left right. Four out of the five. Best puck possession teams are still left in the playoffs. And Neal that isn't -- Pittsburgh correct. While Pittsburgh is left to but new Jersey's the only team that was in the top five puck possession Pittsburgh was. But they have Sidney Crosby said that changes the game. And also they didn't have Sidney Crosby for a significant amount of time they were also front running sell those those numbers aren't exactly the you know yet to take context into it with the penguins but. For the teams that are left are for the top five in puck possession -- the only team that isn't New Jersey obviously they make playoffs why. -- was hurt this year they had. The worst goaltending or some of the worst goaltending in the entirely. Like puck possession is probably number one but you have to have somebody stopping the -- -- on had -- terrible to deploy it about and -- And whether he can be a number one another factor that I mentioned in the article other than just looking at his goals and strengths weaknesses is. Maturity or maybe I forgot that to bring this up and maybe I should have is that the maturity is such a big part of it. And also the pressure that goes along with being an NHL number one. Sometimes you see guys in in any sport who get a chance and they show all the tools and even have some statistics when there a part time player. But once their under the gun like once the bright lights are on them as the number one. I mean you've seen what Ryan Miller is gone through here in the national spotlight with all the criticism you look at his numbers they would tell you. He's been a great -- whole career one below average season from his entire career and yet. Every move office every game is scrutinized. Like crazy and I'm not saying that media's wrong for doing that are fans are wrong for doing that that's life in the NHL. And notice and Roth has always gotten as well -- maybe up -- good. Not like you're gonna get destroyed. If you have three or four bad games are you ready for that and that's one thing that you can't predict with any number. And I think even breeding upload that point. The bullseye that is on the goal is I think even increases. When you talk about someone that has the contract that Ryan Miller. Or -- -- west or referral Longo have. And then you start to wonder is is it worked day and I guess my real question is more broader than anything. In your -- is the goalie position worth. All of these gobs of money that that some teams are willing to brought to it or or should teams prioritize and sale and it may be. This is better dressed going forward or defense rather than investing so many precious resource into the goaltending position. That's gotten probably. One of the most debated topics I think in Saber metrics because. For awhile a lot of -- people were saying hey goalie you can find one anywhere right. Mean Tim Thomas was playing in the American Hockey League overseas and all of a sudden he's the best goal in the -- And even going back to -- -- -- mean he wasn't like high draft pick or anything. The way I look at -- business. It's worth your money to guarantee. A -- will never take your season. It's worth paying a guy. Five or six million under the current cap to say we know that every year Jonathan Quick is gonna give us a chance to win the Stanley Cup. If you're Saint Louis near one of the better puck possession teams in the league in your your dominant. You have big forwards a great defense. And then Brian Elliott. Is the one that basically. Doesn't get you into the top two or three when you're one of the best teams because he's so awful. I mean I think that would just that's worth paying to know that's not gonna happen. And you look at the last couple years Ryan Miller could have been better at times absolutely is it his fault the sabres didn't make the playoffs. But just by looking at the numbers. Not no no way no chance I'd look at New Jersey again and say. Would New Jersey I know -- goalie got hurt but would New Jersey or Carolina. Would they have paid five million dollars. To make sure that that goaltending position was going to be sound not the reason that they missed the playoffs by a point or two. I would say yes so I think. The way I would do it is if find all over 5000 or 101000 shots that goaltenders going to be really good. Because his whole career says that. I would pay the man and I look at Detroit. There they were the team everybody pointed to what now Jimmy Howard's proved it over this long period of time. And they paid him and Jonathan Quick the same thing so I think that. It's going back to the trend especially in the league the way it is now where even strength scoring is the big thing because power plays are being kind of eliminated. I think that everybody is going back that same way over the paying goaltenders again once they proved they're good I think you can pay him. And now that induces the question. Whether or not the sabres should part ways with Bryant Miller now there's a lot more considerate than -- rather just. Okay whether or not he's good enough to keep your season for taking good because it seems like the sabres are aiming to take. -- With Miller in the one year left. Would they be better served. You know just take a shot on and -- this point around and then really. That the stick it out with Miller this. I think it's mostly up to Ryan Miller when it comes to that. Whether he thinks that they can be a winner in two or three years or one or two years as opposed to five years. Which the way they're talking it doesn't seem like they think that I think they could be in the playoffs next year it's hockey. It's it's not baseball where it might take you a long long time to get back to the top or. Some teams like the pirates are royals never at the top with hockey. It's always in -- teams like the islanders can spend no money make a couple of savvy moves here there get a good draft pick and all of a sudden. You're right back at the top and I think the sabres hate. You get three or four free agency and here you get rid of three or four players or hurting you. And all the sudden couple of good bounces -- in the playoffs now all that said. I think Ryan Miller probably wants to go somewhere. Else that might be able to win now so. If it if Miller wanted to stay -- wanted three or 45 year contract extension. Yeah maybe it's worth it I think there's two other I mean I think there's too many other things in fall though like just. As the numbers and plugging him in as a number you'd say absolutely why would you want that guy even -- yet to pay him. But all the other baggage that goes along with it with Ryan Miller being here. I think that Jonas and Roth has probably proved enough for those 53 games for me to say. You don't want -- He should probably. Get a chance to be like a fifty game starter next year in May be -- GO comes backing its thirty starts or Matt Hackett gets thirty starts. And see what you have because I don't think even if they make the playoffs or Stanley Cup contender next year. Good stuff Matt out we. Ending world it out of time pure analogue of Andhra but. In in the next couple weeks let's talk about maybe how the sabres should approach free agency and and in ways that they can use the advanced stats that are really get that point I think that would be rather twisting as well. I agree and in another thing I wanna talk to you about Joseph with football is. Marcel Darius is a really interesting case. And I'd love to look at Darius and maybe Stephon Gilmore couple other players give your opinion. Where they Saber metrics or even. I guess I mean just analytical is the way we should talk about it because you're not just metric but also your scouting of these players to. And using video and the -- one and two and everything else so. -- -- -- run short on things that talk about -- Now I don't think so especially with free agency training camp everything like that rolled out well thank you sir -- That will do it for episode three of the athletics department. Thank you all for joining us here on WGR by the outcome and we will talk to you next week.