WGR550>Topics>>8/1 The Analytics Dept. Ep.6 Spiller, Thriller

8/1 The Analytics Dept. Ep.6 Spiller, Thriller

Aug 1, 2013|


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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Like golf things in lights boards in the way we look at them do not fall into just black and white welcome everybody we are getting basic math. -- sometimes there's more to the story then the actual story people. Are overlooked for a variety of -- -- that would WGR Sports Radio 550 will attempt to uncover. Welcome to the analytic department podcast. -- Joseph the scallions and that few dollars. A WGR sports revealed by the. Hello and welcome its new episode six of the analytic department Matthew collar with the along with -- the Joba -- king master in guy out of buffalo bills' training camp and Joseph actually has a day off today is that right -- Sources confirmed -- sources have his sources close to you confirm that you have a day off today it will that's a rare and and great house -- going. Camp has been good it's been. A big difference from. What we've been used to seeing. Just in terms of you know maybe contact on the field and and you know what we're recording this -- Thursday there's only been four practices this point so. And -- only two of which have been added and it's been pretty physical so you know that and that's changed the the pace of practice has changed and you know there's a lot of new faces too so that always makes things more interest. So what do you think of that I mean. Before we get what we're gonna talk about hearing what do you think of more contact because. I mean there's some coaches who over the years have just decided that they want less contact and everybody going healthy and others want everybody to go in. Toughened up there have been some studies about you know practicing hard in contact in leading to concussions and so forth what do you think of it. If you're -- and. This is a very old. Viewpoint that I might have whereas you know a lot of the stuff I think. -- reason where this is pretty you know maybe a new wave of thinking but this one is an old school. I think that you practiced much like the way that you play and with that if you're trying to. If you're playing not to get hurt and your practicing not to get hurt. I don't know item I don't know that I necessarily have the right tone so I like it's the -- sweat to elect the fact they're going to be doing a scrimmage on Monday night. And in the you know that's going to be something that I think. Both the meat yeah and fans are looking forward to seeing just because. You know you get to see actual football actual tackling. And bringing bringing guys the ground and see if you -- players to break tackles and and make even a bigger place so it's hard to simulate. Those type of things. In practice without actually doing that and that's another key components of a football so I I -- in paper. I guess I haven't decided yet I mean there's there's been some studies about. I'm practicing hard with pads and so forth and then you know certain hits leading to easier concussions but where in training camp right now and we're still. A long way away from the season I think mid season. It I would limit. Contact but I think now I think you're ready to -- need to -- treated like Euro get ready to play plus you need to see how guys are tackling two yeah. -- -- -- training -- you're absolutely -- training camp is where it should be done once you get in the regular season I mean you have. Four days to prepare not three days to prepare for a team so you should be focusing on hurting your guys then. Or you know putting them in danger of it but you know you should have a good base of of what your coach wants throughout training camp and then once you get to the regular season you know kinda -- -- -- that. Definitely so bomb. Well what we wanna talk about today is Mario Williams -- on skating world. You scared me. What we wanna talk about actually is not Mario Williams -- -- maybe for another day we'll talk about what sort of projection we each have for Mario Williams this this year but. We want to talk about CJ Spiller and how good CJ Spiller can be this year because I think that it's been a little bit some of a point of conversation not so much debate the conversation of how good Spiller can really beat. Because if you go by the advanced metrics he was -- -- the re NFL running back last year. And that's despite the Gailey won't play him debacle or the wind did. Gates thing -- Wingate sure Wingate sure arm. All that stuff that went on and all the conversations that we had about how much more he should be on the field and yet we still considered one of the top running backs in the league. I think by default then. This year we expect. -- Hackett and dug around not to make the same mistakes as their predecessors. Give CJ that damn ball. And for him to be again a top three running back maybe even the best in the league right in the conversation -- major Peters. Where you invoking your -- -- Shawn Johnson there I think I ones yeah yeah but yeah it's it's a compelling topic because. There's a lot of uncertainty. When it comes to CJ Spiller in terms of a bigger role now. You can sit there and say OK well. If he averaged just such and such and such yards per carry with only 207 carries. Then you know the -- he's on pace for a ridiculous season but you know by and large there are certain situations. Beneficial situation that Chan Gailey and staff put him into in the game. Where he could rip off a bunch of yardage and -- that's not to say that he didn't do some a bit out of our because he was. An amazing run last year and and gaining yards even when he shouldn't. But. What does that change once once you have you know and we always talk about. The sample size well he had a relatively small sample size four for carries last year he gets the ball -- this year what what will he do. And will will it drop upload it yards per carry -- I think you that it would be only fair to expect that. I mean. The research that I did and I'll post the link right below this in the story so you can see that the research I did on its pillars that. It's really likely that he's going to see a yards per carry drop but that doesn't mean he has to be. Last valuable in fact he could probably be more valuable even -- was last year when he was. Probably one of the top five running backs top three running next week. I did a study of all the running backs who have average over five yards since 1998. And found that of the 52 guys who did it. Fifty of them wind down the year after. Although one of them was Spiller who actually went up. But that was only in a hundred carries and then 200 carries but it's fair to expect I think that easy yards for -- going to go down. If he gets more carries there's another factor that maybe you'll find interest thing with this Joseph is that if the bills are good. CJ Steelers yards per carry could go -- down but he could still be more valuable does that make sense. Absolutely it does to me I think you should explain to the audience what what made -- what you mean well the thing is that if the bills are good in the playing from ahead. I mean we don't know what Doug morons gonna do for shore but it is football coach one on one when -- playing from ahead especially -- games to hand the ball off. We know there's other teams know this and a lot of guys who are you know on front running teams. C carries -- 234. Yards smash mouth kind of up the middle even the most elusive backs. Because the other teams putting five men in the box and even the best running back when they're putting. Or not five men not by a man on the line. And then eight men in the box the loading up they know you're gonna run you know you're gonna run you're just trying to -- the clock out. So you're gonna see yards per carry go down because there's going to be more of those 234 yard. You know pounding straight up the middle carries when your head that's at the bills are good. If the bills are bad. They're going to be playing from behind a lot expecting passes you can see runs out of the shotgun with multiple defensive backs easier to find room -- yards. But the thing is that Spiller could still be the exact same running back for most of the game. Except for at the end when -- either way upper weight down you're gonna see that maybe have an effect on his yards per carry that's one of the things that makes it hard to predict Joseph because of I don't know how good this team is going to be at TJ manuals really good. If the defense really good like they could be an eight win team a nine win team. And he could be just as valuable and yet see only four and a half yards a carry and set a sex. I think the other thing that might concern the whole aspect of yards per carry. Is how effective can his running style be. When you're talking about giving him you know four bit. Maybe not be as many carries as Adrian Peterson had last year because that was ridiculous -- -- he had but yet you know maybe maybe in the realm of like 350. Or or somewhere near there. Putting him in there in the top ten of carries for the week. It if you were to be that. You know is his running style. As effective or do they just try and and try them. Different ways of of limiting him if he's always going to you. Which he's shown that he doesn't do it as much but he still doesn't quite a bit try to bounce it outside and try to get -- I don't he's fast I know he could probably get to the corner. But duke teams try to. Where will they try to do you know account for that and you know what he's always looking for it let's say they have a solid front four hour. There or they just bring their linebackers and they they may just have their -- camp out on each side. You know they're there are ways to go about trying to ruin what what he can do in that perspective. If if he starts to lose a step as as the game goes along and then certainly it presents even a bigger problem so. And so that's that's one thing that would concern me what with a bigger. The -- for him. Yea you know the funny thing is that I wrote this some kind of last year that the you know maybe -- police thought process wasn't as bad as we thought now there were some games where I wanted to tear my hair out just like everybody yell. I'll give you an example the end of the first half against Miami when CJ Spiller ripped off. It was the Thursday night game it went CJ Spiller ripped off huge gains three plates in a row. The final six plays of the app with the build -- -- pretty much on the goal line. Tashard Choice all the way to -- -- -- concussion. Right so clearly Gailey felt that it EU didn't have enough left that it Davies fatigued or whatever else that -- Google -- -- but. David called a timeout so that the -- now yeah yeah. That was that was weird but look -- I mean that's it's I mean like the wind it thing it was it was strange and it didn't make much sense but I don't. Don't think they Gailey was as far off as maybe we think he was I think he was I think he was still wrong and mean there's no question charge or shouldn't be in the game at the end of the game he should never Spiller should never have less than ten carries that's a fire able offense. But I do think this. Spiller is such an effective wide receiver out of the backfield I mentioned in my article that. He was 43 for 56 in targets in catches. And he averaged over ten yards a catch and part of that is just. Finding him the ball a couple yards in front of the line of scrimmage -- couple yards behind and just letting him use his incredible elusive and is in its capability. And just giving him more room essentially than a regular hand -- would give him and I think if the bills gave him 250. Kerry's. And 75 wide receiving targets instead of like what a lot of people are tired about all he needs 300 Kerry's. While I would rather see him get a few more carries a game. And a few more pass catches a game. And that kind of add up to a whole thing because I mean honestly like when he was catching the ball he was gaining more yards per touch on those catches. That he was on hand -- he can't do it every time because then they'll target it but it's an effective weapon that I think we shouldn't forget about. Just because we want him to run for X number of yards we should rightly think about is all purpose yards not just he is. You know just these yards. From scrimmage when it comes to running the ball you know and. How about just have him on the field period. Rather than take him off I mean hey it's a novel concept but one that wasn't always followed last year. In he would come often and the weirdest thing I've ever seen is allowing the running backs to control who's on the field and who's not on the field. And that to me that's just a joke you know -- But. You know Spiller. I -- your -- with him he's he's definitely a big time receiving threat and that's part of what makes him such a dynamic player because you gave him a little bit of a crease. He's gonna fight it in and he is going to make -- So. With that said -- I could I could see a situation foresee a situation where. Spiller is it may be gets I don't know eighteen carries and there's six or seven catches I think they'll be the perfect -- -- -- I think so too I think they should shoot for. 2000 or so all purpose yards I know that Buffalo Bills dot com that are really nice write up on how it's possible he gets 2000 rushing yards but I don't think you want to be that sort of back though I think out. -- the reason one of the reasons Adrian Peterson runs so much not exactly good. Pass catcher. You know it's like he's an effective players they don't really have a quarterback. So you have to just keep running him with the ball but I think Spiller and Peterson are not good comparable at all I think you want Spiller to be more like LaDainian Tomlinson or Marshall falcon guy who can do absolutely everything and I agree -- that. Last year letting Fred Jackson's -- figured out amongst themselves hey Joseph and softball tonight you wanna -- third or fourth. Thought they would want to do. Right ought to play Earthlink guard or power forward Rondo and yeah that kind of like what the coach's job is to determine these sorts of things. You have to -- especially if you're you're the head coach and the offensive coordinator. That means you should be coordinating the offense. And what what it was out on the field I mean that's that's inherent in the job responsibilities or I miss reading it. No that's totally right and there's a few other factors that I did want to mention that might affect his yards per carry so I guess what I wanna say is that about Spiller overall. Make sure that if -- yards per carry are not up at six that you don't freak out. If Europe fans the bills that if it's four and a half or five. -- you're not saying oh well he just was a one hit wonder and so forth because there's a few other things that are at play. The bills played some really really bad defense is last year against the run. Thirtieth 292827. And 26 twice. I mean they played all of those teams last season -- that's their rank in run defense. And that's gonna have somewhat of an effective they faced. Five of these seven worst run defense league in the bills might have been one of the other ones in there so it's like five out of work six. And the and the other thing is that twenty yard runs his big bursts. I expect. That he will get twenty yard runs but if you look at the chart in my article you'll see that some running backs can repeat. Big yard runs twenty plus yard runs and other ones have shown that they can't. Repeat them from season to season one year guy will have twelve the next your guy will have five. And some of that just as good -- who you're facing somebody falls down like things like that. So it doesn't mean he's an effective it is twenty yard runs go down it might mean that they're targeting a little more. Or that it's just not lock or harder defense is that it was last year so I I would I think Joseph. That it's reasonable to expect CJ Spiller to be a superstar and a centerpiece to the offense. But without expecting endeavor six yards to carry yet. I agree wholeheartedly with you Matthew and even if he's even if they find ways to. Limit him in limit his carries or whatnot. It or -- -- yards per carry it should say. He still on the field. And he's still gonna make the defense a confident and that is a huge factor in football when you have someone who can affect the game the way that Spiller can. Even the threat of him getting the ball is humongous for game planning purposes so. Just having -- out on the field is going to be be big for -- obviously he's going to he's going to be able. Do some nice things when he does have the ball in his hand but they're having about there on the field in general is is going to be the -- best friend in 2013. One more question -- for you for. Ramped up its. What about Fred Jackson. In in this whole thing it's something I've thought about a lot and Fred Jackson was not entirely ineffective last year in fact I remember looking at the games that he was healthy. Like not where -- is trying to play coming up the knee injury or whatever out he had some really good games last year against Tennessee was a good one against Jacksonville's good one too bad teams I know. But he was over five yards a carry itself. It's not like Fred Jackson wasn't a great running back two years ago when a guy who would've gone to the Pro -- not for an injury. What what's his role because I like to see Spiller and Jackson used on the field at the same time Chan Gailey treated that like it was illegal. Like now I'll get I have to running backs on the same time. Yeah his explanation for it was was mind boggling to -- it and we asked them and that well you don't want to book a month until the same time because what one gets hurt. What for and -- don't have -- and -- the same time. But the but the thing is with which Fred Jackson the one thing you have to do. It's yet to get the out of nowhere fumbling problem he had last year under control I think he had like six fumbles but which were lost. And I could be wrong that I don't have the statistics right in front -- -- but I am pretty sure he he didn't fumble the -- -- at an alarming -- for him anyway. I think what is I dual role would be. Might be the same way CJ Spiller was treated a couple of seasons ago you might be the the perfect change of pace type. You know to be able to bring in if you're not gonna play them at the same time which. You know I think Nathaniel Hackett is gonna do a good deal that. But if then I haven't come -- be that change of pace back and and you don't get a little bit more physical at the line of scrimmage and then you can start and he's still look good pass -- to that I think that's of the very underrated about projects you can you can do quite well odds and passes. It's just. Being able to it in -- find the right role for -- at 3132 year old running back. It isn't always easy but I think. He can he can succeed in the role if he's -- -- -- media like. I don't know. 1010 touches a game total I think they'll be the critical projects this year. I think so too and I also have no concerns about that Daniel Hackett like think whether he's gonna think outside the box that seems to be his. His billing that he comes in as a guide it's you know younger he's he's almost outraged kind of weird. You know he comes in with a different sort of thought process think outside the box and I think -- Armed you know he will be creative with those things you can do so CJ Spiller makes me so excited and Tyco and I don't mean that in a weird way because. Picking up well I don't care. Because in you know what if it is a weird way I don't know that that's wrong but -- It really though because he -- to. Every thing and that there are so few running backs ever who can do is much he can't in terms of the versatility I mentioned Balkan Tomlinson. I don't even know -- falcon -- sooners' explosive. As CJ Spiller was or is was last year right and the other thing that I that I would love to see at least a couple times this year maybe once a game. Spiller -- up in the slot. And run a go route. He's got to be one of the three fastest players on the team or five best players on the team. I think that it would totally come out of nowhere and it could be -- a big play and it's something you can do now that you don't have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing wounded ducks. Yeah well they tried it a few times last year on the sidelines and it just didn't work out because the right at Patrick factors so. With the company quarterback because the way things are going you would. You know it's starting to look more more like Manuel might have a real good chance of winning this job so. He does that you have a player you know can hit those passes. It's just the consistency inside the game that you that you need out of manual but. Yeah I would I would like to see that to just open it up and and you brought Daniel Hackett I have no concerns over him either I said this to many people. If EJ Manuel hits with Daniel Hackett will be one of the hottest coaching prospects per head coaching position. Indiana felt a lot like what Josh McDaniels was a few years ago when -- hired him so and that's not to say that the the same guy by any means. It's just the innovation that you. The exuberance that they show. That they show with him for it with for their players and things like that -- owner Daniel Hackett. Could be a star in the making it but it all depends on the quarterback here buffalo -- As a basically all the things I like valued you know we use it burns. A blushing now well. Look at that that's a good way to and its -- By the way followed Joseph if you don't which if there's anybody out there still doesn't follow you that's just wrong. And Joseph this Dahlia I am at Matthew WGR I'm slowly trudging toward Joe's totals but that I think about half. I'll try to catch Jeremy I'm all about and I'm under three under way I'll Jeremy for top at the station so it's got to happen soon. All right analytics. That well. Next week or whenever we get to podcast again we'll talk about something else that's a guarantee. Someday we'll get more. We'll get to that after an article I wrote it and but it's not easy it's just didn't feel right. Right. Right okay well. Make sure you have follow us on Twitter and pass along any questions feel free. You know to Joseph RI and you know one of these days we're gonna do mailbag where all we do is just answer analytics questions so. Appreciate listening here to episodes six of the analytics department make sure you follow us on Twitter and your WGR five if -- knocked out.